The probability of developing cancer.

In 1956, Goldberg (1) described the probability of developing cancer during two time periods—1940 and 1950. To compute probabilities, data on cancer morbidity and mortality from 1942-1944 and 19491951 were combined, respectively, with life-table data for the three year-periods 1939-1941 and 1949-1951. The analysis was based on the population of upstate New York (New York State exclusive of New York City). Ferber (2) updated these probabilities by using similar data centered around 1959. The present analysis uses 1969-1971 cancer morbidity and 1970 lifetable data to estimate the current probability of developing cancer, and to compare current probabilities with those presented by Goldberg and Ferber.